Growth rate Current Affairs - 2019

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NCAER Survey: Business Confidence fell by 15%

According to National Council of Applied Economic Research, the Business Confidence of India dipped to lowest in six years. It fell by 15% between the period July and October 2019

Highlights

  • The Business Confidence Index dipped to 103.1 from 100.4 in October 2013. This is the lowest in the period of 6 years
  • The survey reported that positive growth was witnessed in Managing Inflation, Managing Exchange Rate, Overall Economic Growth, pushing economic reforms, managing conducive political climate, managing government finance, external trade negotiations and managing unemployment
  • The Business Confidence Index witnesses an upswing in the firms with annual turn over less than 1 crore rupees and other micro firms.
  • The Political Confidence Index fell by 35.6% between July and October 2019.
  • The Economic Growth rate declined by 5% in October 2019 as compared to July 2019.

NCAER

The National Council of Applied Economic Research is a Delhi based think tank that was established in 1956. The aim of the body is to give support to both government and private sector economic researches. The TATA Foundation and other premier organizations came together to form the think tank with the support of GoI. It was founded in PM Nehru’s period. Since 1991, the council is tracking the business confidence in the country on a quarterly basis.

IMF: World Economic Outlook, 2019

The World Economic Outlook is a biennial report that is released in April and October. According the report released recently on October 15, 2019, the global economy is at its slowest pace of growth at 3%. This is a serious climb down from 3.8% in 2017.

Key highlights of the report

  • The Global growth rate is projected to improve to 3.4% by 2020.
  • The growth of advanced economies is projected to slow down by 1.7%
  • The emerging and developing economies are projected to experience a growth pick up from 3.9% in 2019 to 4.6% in 2020.
  • The report downgraded India’s growth projections to 6.1% in 2019 and 7% in 2020.
  • According to the report, China is projected to grow at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020.
  • The trade volume reached the lowest since 2012. It reduced by 1% since 2012.

Justifications

  • About half of the economic slow down comes from shallower recessions in stressed emerging markets like Argentina, Turkey, Iran
  • Higher tariffs and prolonged uncertainty in the trade policy are the major reasons for dented investment and the slowdown in the growth. This is very well seen in the effects of trade wars and imposed sanctions
  • The automobile industry is contracting mainly due to the disruptions from new standard emission standards. This predominantly has effect in China.
  • Trade barriers and geopolitical tensions like Brexit is hampering investment, confidence and growth

Recommendations

  • The countries should support the economy slow down with tax-base enhancing measures, rationalizing subsidy-spending, efficient credit allocation and governance of public sector banks.
  • India should keep its Fiscal Deficit under check